Enhancing and Losing Adaptive Capacity in Systems of People and Nature: A Theoretical Framework for Sustainability

The behavior of social, economic, and ecological systems are characterized by periods of gradual transformation punctuated by brief periods of crisis and reorganization. Although difficult to study, it is the brief periods of chaos and how they are resolved (adaptation) that influence long-term system dynamics. For example, forest fires exert long-term influence on forest structure and political revolutions have long-standing consequences for social order.

The aims of the collaborative is to study the dynamics of complex systems of people and the environment during times of re-organization, when adaptive capacity can either be enhanced or reduced. The participants will create models, developed in conjunction with data from the proposed empirical case studies, for guiding management and policies that allow for maximum adaptive capacity within a system. The case study sites are in regions lending themselves to the comparative analysis of reorganization and adaptability: the Mae-Ping in Thailand; the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia; the Save-Rundi and Pungwe basins in Zimbabwe and Mozambique. While all are concerned with water use, each site involves a unique set of institutional structures and stake-holder groups.